Truck rates are up 10.1% on last year, and the climb is speeding up.
Rates have been above last year since early 2025. Over the last three months the increase grew by 4.6 points while shipments rose only 1.9%. Rates are rising faster than freight is growing.
Where we are in the cycle
Truck rates vs a year agoWhat moved since last Monday
Weekly and daily feeds only. Monthly numbers below are tagged when they update.
How to use it: these change every week, so use them for this week's quotes and carrier calls.
Truck rates compared with a year earlier
Above zero, carriers are getting more than last year. The last time the line climbed this fast was late 2023.
What it means: above the line, carriers are getting paid more than a year earlier. Below it, less. How to use it: when the line climbs, lock carriers on your core lanes and reprice contracts early. When it falls, expect shippers to rebid. Hover the chart to read any month.
Is your contract rate still good?
Enter when you signed and what you're paid. See how far the market and fuel have moved since, and the real reported rate where USDA publishes one.
How to use it: pick where the lane starts, your equipment, the rate you're paid and the month you signed. The numbers update as you type. Switch to per load to set your rate next to USDA's reported rate where USDA has one. If the market moved a lot since you signed, talk to your customer before the contract renews.
What moves rates over the next six months
Each card reads one public feed. The tag says whether it points to tighter or looser trucks.
How to read the tags: Firming means trucks are likely to get tighter and rates go up. Softening means trucks get looser and rates come down. Mixed can push either way.
Freight volume
New this monthFirmingMore freight is moving than a year earlier.
Diesel
New this monthMixedSqueezes small carriers out and raises fuel surcharges. It does not set truck rates by itself.
What shippers spend on freight
New this monthFirmingShippers are spending more on freight than a year earlier.
Factory orders
FirmingNew factory orders turn into outbound loads two to four months later.
Stock on shelves
FirmingBusinesses are holding less stock for what they sell. Restocking means more inbound freight.
Trucking jobs
New this monthMixedAbout as many people work in trucking as a year earlier. Payrolls have stopped shrinking.
Trucks and drivers in the market
New heavy trucks sold and people working in trucking, against a year earlier. The count of carriers leaving is held back until both sides of it can be measured the same way.
What it means: more new trucks and more people working in trucking add capacity, which usually eases rates a few months later. Fewer of either tightens it. How to use it: read both next to truck rates above.
Where freight is building this month
Harvest and import windows that pull trucks out of a region. Pick a month to plan ahead.
How to read it: Peak means shipping is at its highest, Building means it's ramping up, In season means steady. Loads vs avg compares this month with the average of the last three years.
| Origin | Freight | Equipment | Phase | Loads vs avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacific Northwest | Pacific Northwest harvest | Reefer | In season | n/a |
| Nationwide | Retail holiday restocking, Back-to-school build | Dry van | In season | n/a |
| Nationwide | Warm-climate construction season | Flatbed | In season | n/a |
| Pacific Northwest | Cold-climate construction season | Flatbed | In season | n/a |
| Mountain West | Cold-climate construction season | Flatbed | In season | n/a |
| Plains | Cold-climate construction season | Flatbed | In season | n/a |
| Upper Midwest | Cold-climate construction season | Flatbed | In season | n/a |
| Northeast | Cold-climate construction season | Flatbed | In season | n/a |
Why Loads vs avg says n/a: it needs USDA's count of loads shipped from each origin, month by month, for the last three years. USDA gives that history only through its data service, which needs a free key this site hasn't been given yet. Until it has one, every row says n/a. We don't fill it in with a guess.
Twelve months of every signal
Each cell is the change against the same month a year earlier. Blue is above, orange is below. Color shows direction, not good or bad.
How to read it: read across a row to see one signal over 12 months, or down a column to see one month across every signal. Darker cells are bigger changes. Hover a cell for its value, or a row name for what it measures.
| Series | Oct 25 | Nov 25 | Dec 25 | Jan 26 | Feb 26 | Mar 26 | Apr 26 | May 26 | Jun 26 | Jul 26 | Aug 26 | Sep 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New heavy trucks sold | −26.7 | −31.3 | −14.9 | −17.8 | −15.6 | −20.0 | −15.2 | −3.6 | +3.2 | +3.6 | +3.0 | +2.3 |
| Imports | −4.6 | −2.6 | −3.6 | −15.0 | −10.8 | −12.8 | +10.3 | +15.6 | +16.8 | +15.3 | +28.4 | |
| Trucks crossing the border | −2.3 | −7.1 | −0.5 | −7.8 | −1.2 | −1.6 | +2.4 | −1.1 | +2.6 | −1.0 | +2.5 | −2.8 |
| Trucks crossing from Mexico | +1.4 | −6.5 | +4.0 | −1.1 | +3.8 | +1.9 | +2.1 | −3.0 | +1.1 | 0.0 | −0.9 | −4.0 |
| Trucks crossing from Canada | −7.3 | −7.9 | −6.9 | −17.0 | −8.2 | −6.3 | +2.9 | +1.8 | +4.8 | −2.4 | +7.5 | −1.2 |
| Houston loaded imports | +7.6 | −12.2 | −0.7 | +4.5 | +0.4 | +7.5 | −8.4 | +13.4 | +27.0 | −3.0 | +3.8 | +15.7 |
| Freight volume | −7.8 | −7.6 | −7.5 | −7.1 | −7.2 | −4.5 | −4.4 | −1.2 | −4.1 | −4.8 | +2.1 | +1.9 |
| What shippers spend on freight | −0.2 | −1.3 | −0.6 | +0.6 | +2.1 | +4.2 | +3.5 | +7.5 | +11.2 | +9.1 | +18.7 | +20.4 |
| Truck rates | +3.0 | +2.2 | +2.1 | +3.2 | +2.2 | +1.8 | +5.6 | +6.9 | +5.5 | +8.6 | +11.3 | +10.1 |
| Diesel | +2.6 | +8.5 | +3.5 | −3.1 | +1.3 | +37.3 | +54.2 | +60.0 | +39.6 | +31.1 | +45.9 | +67.8 |
| Trucking jobs | −1.7 | −2.0 | −1.8 | −1.8 | −1.5 | −1.8 | −1.4 | −1.3 | −1.2 | −1.1 | −0.7 | +0.1 |
| Factory output | +1.8 | +1.8 | +1.2 | +1.0 | +0.8 | +0.7 | +1.4 | +1.7 | +1.5 | +1.3 | +1.6 | +2.2 |
| Stock on shelves | −2.1 | −2.1 | −2.1 | −3.5 | −3.5 | −4.3 | −5.0 | −7.7 | −6.3 | −4.3 | −5.0 | |
| Factory orders | +2.3 | +5.4 | +4.5 | +4.2 | +4.0 | +2.5 | +12.2 | +2.5 | +7.6 | +9.8 | +8.5 | |
| Store sales, after inflation | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.2 | +1.1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +2.4 | +2.4 | +1.2 | +2.1 | +2.5 |
What is coming across the border and the docks
In August, imports from Mexico were up 34% by value on a year earlier, while Mexico truck crossings were down 1%. More value is riding in each truck, not more trucks.
What it means: dollar value of goods coming into and leaving the U.S. Imports from Mexico and Canada mostly cross by truck, so they turn into border and inland loads.
Connor's read on what comes next
Three ways the next year could go, in the words of a third-generation broker. This is his judgment, not a model, and we don't publish a rate forecast.
How to use it: plan for the most likely path, and watch the "what would prove it wrong" line. When one of those shows up in the numbers above, the outlook is changing.
Capacity keeps leaving faster than freight does. Coverage gets steadily harder on lanes that were already thin, and contract rates reset up through bid season without a spot blowoff. Brokers who bid last year's numbers get squeezed on award day.
Tender rejections hold above 10 percent, net authority counts keep falling, and driver supply stays constrained by enforcement rather than by wages.
Rejections fall under 8 percent for two straight months, or authority counts flatten and turn positive.
Driver exits accelerate past what anyone modeled and coverage on secondary lanes gets genuinely hard. Shippers with weak route guides pay whatever the market asks, and spot re-tests its highs.
Enforcement keeps pulling drivers out with nothing replacing them, rejections push past 15 percent, and carrier exits accelerate month over month rather than holding steady.
Capacity re-enters. Authority grants turn positive, or rejections stall in the low teens instead of climbing.
Industrial and construction demand contracts far enough that soft freight offsets tight capacity. Fewer trucks, but even less to haul, so coverage stays easy and the reset never arrives.
Manufacturing and construction contract measurably, and volumes fall faster than capacity does.
Volumes hold flat while capacity keeps shrinking, which is the base case.
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Post it or send it
This card goes out on FreightScout's LinkedIn and X every Monday once every number checks out against its source. Copy it for your own feed. It links back here.
Every number traces to a public feed
Every number says what it's compared to and when it's from
- Monthly numbers compare with the same month a year ago. Freight is seasonal, so September vs August mostly shows the season, not the market.
- Weekly numbers show both: vs last week, and vs the same week a year ago.
- Every card shows its date. A September number never sits under "this week" without saying September.
- Late data says it's late. If a source misses its update, the card shows the last date in orange instead of passing old data off as new.
- Revised numbers get replaced. When an agency revises a month, we update it and mark it revised.
- Nothing goes out unchecked. Before Monday's brief and post, every number is matched to its source. One mismatch holds the send.