The freight market outlook | Freight Capacity Exit Index (FCEI)
Reporting period:
April 2026. Carrier exit is flat.
32,505 carriers had a cancellation filed, a rate of 76.20 per 1,000 insured carriers, against 75.35 a year earlier.
April 2026 is the newest month whose filings have actually arrived. The months after it are computed and held back rather than shown as a collapse, and the section below names them.
No rate forecast, and no dollar figure anywhere on this page. We hold no rate data at all.
Carrier exit is flat year over year
Every figure in this section counts carriers whose insurer filed a cancellation with FMCSA during the month, once each however many filings they had, against the insured carrier base domiciled in the same state. Both sides are counts of carriers.
Carriers with a cancellation filed, per 1,000 insured carriers. April 2026
State
Per 1,000
Carriers
Insured base
A year earlier
Change
NJ
103.97
1,388
13,350
95.80
+8.17
CA
101.41
5,488
54,115
93.54
+7.87
FL
101.21
2,188
21,618
99.49
+1.72
TX
95.01
4,004
42,145
93.98
+1.03
NC
92.78
1,355
14,605
108.23
-15.45
GA
87.09
1,396
16,029
89.76
-2.66
SC
84.23
555
6,589
83.90
+0.33
DE
83.77
129
1,540
70.55
+13.22
MD
83.17
676
8,128
89.50
-6.33
AZ
81.15
586
7,221
83.29
-2.13
NV
79.25
280
3,533
77.82
+1.43
IN
75.91
936
12,331
72.02
+3.89
VA
75.29
674
8,952
70.58
+4.71
PA
74.95
1,483
19,787
71.56
+3.39
OH
72.65
1,331
18,321
75.05
-2.40
MS
67.37
280
4,156
66.83
+0.55
TN
67.17
584
8,695
67.85
-0.69
MA
66.32
452
6,815
64.36
+1.96
CT
65.05
244
3,751
64.61
+0.44
IL
64.74
1,610
24,869
64.10
+0.64
CO
64.58
399
6,178
64.36
+0.22
AL
63.88
354
5,542
65.76
-1.88
UT
63.39
267
4,212
59.37
+4.02
NM
62.78
182
2,899
58.64
+4.14
LA
62.24
194
3,117
65.58
-3.34
OK
59.34
302
5,089
61.02
-1.68
OR
58.83
307
5,218
52.69
+6.14
RI
58.43
70
1,198
56.65
+1.78
MI
57.56
510
8,861
52.02
+5.53
MN
56.55
500
8,841
48.26
+8.30
KY
54.63
275
5,034
60.26
-5.63
WA
54.50
555
10,184
59.64
-5.14
AR
53.99
188
3,482
57.28
-3.29
MO
52.99
456
8,606
52.44
+0.55
WY
52.34
94
1,796
50.61
+1.73
WV
51.70
85
1,644
50.62
+1.09
ID
51.60
179
3,469
54.68
-3.08
NH
48.02
75
1,562
48.40
-0.38
MT
45.80
85
1,856
39.68
+6.12
ND
45.78
110
2,403
50.43
-4.66
NY
45.68
444
9,719
51.87
-6.19
KS
45.36
227
5,004
48.06
-2.69
NE
43.67
202
4,626
38.95
+4.72
WI
42.74
326
7,628
45.20
-2.47
IA
41.95
290
6,913
41.64
+0.31
VT
38.51
30
779
32.26
+6.25
ME
37.99
53
1,395
37.66
+0.34
SD
37.68
85
2,256
36.35
+1.33
AK
36.76
15
408
32.34
+4.43
Source: FMCSA insurance filings. Rates are comparable across periods and geographies and are not national totals.
What the calendar says next
Model output, not measurement. These figures come from the seasonality model the FreightScout product uses to price a lane when a broker has no history of their own on it. The months that move and the direction they move in rest on published sources. How far they move is our own conservative estimate and has not been calibrated against delivered freight.
Each figure is a multiplier against a region's own average month, for September. A region reading 1.10 is expected to run about ten percent above what it averages across the year. The twelve months always average to 1.00, so this says nothing about whether one region is cheaper than another. It says when each one tightens.
Seasonal multiplier by region and trailer, September. Model output.
Region
Dry Van
Reefer
Flatbed
Step Deck
Power Only
LTL
Intermodal
Tanker
Hopper
Other
Pacific Southwest
1.06
1.02
1.03
1.03
no driver
1.06
no driver
no driver
no driver
no driver
Pacific Northwest
1.06
1.09
1.08
1.08
no driver
1.06
no driver
no driver
no driver
no driver
Mountain West
1.04
0.98
1.06
1.06
0.98
1.04
0.98
0.98
0.98
no driver
Southwest Desert
1.06
0.97
1.03
1.03
no driver
1.06
no driver
no driver
no driver
no driver
Texas and Gulf
1.06
0.96
1.03
1.03
no driver
1.06
no driver
no driver
no driver
no driver
Plains
1.04
0.98
1.06
1.06
0.98
1.04
0.98
0.98
0.98
no driver
Upper Midwest
1.04
0.98
1.06
1.06
0.98
1.04
0.98
0.98
0.98
no driver
Lower Midwest
1.06
no driver
1.03
1.03
no driver
1.06
no driver
no driver
no driver
no driver
Southeast
1.06
0.96
1.03
1.03
no driver
1.06
no driver
no driver
no driver
no driver
Florida
1.06
0.93
1.03
1.03
no driver
1.06
no driver
no driver
no driver
no driver
Mid-Atlantic
1.06
no driver
1.03
1.03
no driver
1.06
no driver
no driver
no driver
no driver
Northeast
1.04
0.98
1.06
1.06
0.98
1.04
0.98
0.98
0.98
no driver
Western Canada
1.04
0.98
1.06
1.06
0.98
1.04
0.98
0.98
0.98
no driver
Central Canada
1.04
0.98
1.06
1.06
0.98
1.04
0.98
0.98
0.98
no driver
Atlantic Canada
1.04
0.98
1.06
1.06
0.98
1.04
0.98
0.98
0.98
no driver
No carrier rate is published
We are not publishing a carrier rate. There is no dollar figure on this page and there is not one behind it either.
What would put one here is a cross brokerage cost series, pooled across enough brokerages that no single book shows through it. That layer is built and it is empty. It stays empty until enough brokerages are contributing and running the same lanes, which is a question of how many customers we have rather than of engineering.
Connor's read: a higher floor, not a spike
This section is operator judgment, not analysis. Everything in it is one person's read on the market, written by hand. It is not model output, it is not derived from any figure elsewhere on this page, and no method produced it. Weigh it as you would weigh any operator's opinion.
Struck 2026-08 by Connor Miller, FreightScout.
Operator judgment
A higher floor, not a spike
55%
The call
Capacity keeps leaving faster than freight does. Coverage gets steadily harder on lanes that were already thin, and contract rates reset up through bid season without a spot blowoff. Brokers who bid last year's numbers get squeezed on award day.
What would have to be true
Tender rejections hold above 10 percent, net authority counts keep falling, and driver supply stays constrained by enforcement rather than by wages.
What would prove it wrong
Rejections fall under 8 percent for two straight months, or authority counts flatten and turn positive.
Operator judgment
Capacity crunch
25%
The call
Driver exits accelerate past what anyone modeled and coverage on secondary lanes gets genuinely hard. Shippers with weak route guides pay whatever the market asks, and spot re-tests its highs.
What would have to be true
Enforcement keeps pulling drivers out with nothing replacing them, rejections push past 15 percent, and carrier exits accelerate month over month rather than holding steady.
What would prove it wrong
Capacity re-enters. Authority grants turn positive, or rejections stall in the low teens instead of climbing.
Operator judgment
Demand air pocket
20%
The call
Industrial and construction demand contracts far enough that soft freight offsets tight capacity. Fewer trucks, but even less to haul, so coverage stays easy and the reset never arrives.
What would have to be true
Manufacturing and construction contract measurably, and volumes fall faster than capacity does.
What would prove it wrong
Volumes hold flat while capacity keeps shrinking, which is the base case.
What he is watching
The indicators this view gets revised against. Named in advance, so a revision is a change of mind with a reason rather than a quiet edit.
Net carrier authority
Insurance cancellations by state
Tender rejection trend
Fall contract bid prints
What is not on this page, and why
The months we are holding back
FMCSA filings for a month keep arriving long after that month closes. A recent period is not a quiet market, it is an incomplete one, and publishing it would show a sharp drop that quietly corrects upward later.
Months held back, and how much of each has arrived
Period
Arrived so far
Share of a normal month
Status
May 2026
18,070
55.9%
Held back
June 2026
1,881
5.9%
Held back
July 2026
29
0.1%
Held back
The rate forecast we are not making
The obvious next section is a forward view of national carrier rates with a confidence split. We are not publishing one, and the reason is not caution. We hold no rate data at all, our pricing engine prices lanes from history rather than forecasting them, and carrier exit measures attrition rather than price. A scenario split would also assert a fitted model with a track record, and we have published no forecasts, so we have no forecast error to report.
How this is built
Carrier exit is counted from FMCSA insurance filings. The full methodology, including the sample floors, the arrears gate and what is withheld, is at /methodology.
The seasonal model reads no brokerage data of any kind, which is why it can be shown in public.